Portfolio Update May 2018

Do you believe in "Sell in May and go away"?

In May STI got a negative 5.1% return, and the index almost goes back to where it was at the end of December 2017. Many drama happened in May, including China-US trade war tension, and the Italy political crisis. Most stocks are very volatile, especially during the last week of May.

In order to protect my profit, I sold partial of my CDG's share at 2.38, after received few hundreds of dividend in May. I also sold partial of my BOC Aviation at 49.01HKD. I bought some Thomson Group Ltd (HK) in this month, given that they are able to issue high dividend, and it is trading at low valuation.

Tai Sin result is quite bad, and it went down from 0.39 to 0.37.. expected price movement, but I think I will still hold on to it, as the dividend yield is still good and the company most likely is able to maintain it. Straits Trading result even worse, and the price dropped from 2.21 to 2.09, given that it is the largest position in my portfolio, the portfolio performance is dragged down by it.. Good news is BOC Aviation is so powerful and went up from 46 HKD to 49 HKD, so I sold part of it to lock in my profit. (Very sad that didn't managed to sell at 49.70 as I couldn't monitor the market every hour, but got profit is quite good)

I have decided to use "unit price" to compare my portfolio performance against STI and HSI. The base number of my portfolio, STI and HSI equals to 100 at the end of December 2017. The return is shown as follows:

2018 PERFORMANCE
	VALUE		SGX	VALUE		HIS	VALUE
Dec-17	100.00		3402.92	100.00		29919.15	100.00
Jan-18	100.43		3533.99	103.85		32887.27	109.92
Feb-18	98.23		3517.94	103.38		30844.72	103.09
Mar-18	98.14		3427.97	100.74		30093.38	100.58
Apr-18	98.41		3613.93	106.20		30808.45	102.97
May-18	99.70		3428.18	100.74		30468.56	101.84

My portfolio's return is catching up with the index returns.. hope Straits Trading can show better performance..

Looking forward to add more MinSheng Bank HK and BOC Aviation!

Edited on 1/6/18:

Opps forgot to update my portfolio..

	Name	Percentage
Stock
1	ComfortDelGro	2.10%
2	Keong Hong	9.81%
3	TAI SIN	5.26%
4	STRAITS TRADING	29.71%
5	BOC Aviation	7.68%
6	MINSHENG	4.54%
7	RIVERA	5.35%
8	Thomson Group LTD	2.39%
Cash
1	SGD	9.79%
2	HKD	9.23%
3	AUD	14.14%
Total		100%

Straits Trading's percentage is currently below 30% of my total portfolio, and my cash level increased. BOC Aviation dividend will come in next week, around 330 SGD less tax. humm 10% foreign stock dividend tax is quite painful.. can't imagine those have to pay high dividend tax as well as capital gain tax. Ouch.

Hope SG Govn will maintain current dividend tax and CGT level in the future (:

Financial Result Review (2 cents Opinion)

Today, CDG Keong Hong and Tai Sin published their latest result.

CDG 1Q revenue up 1%, staff cost up 6.3%, total operating costs up 1.8%, and profit attributable to shareholder down 19.6% or 16.2 mil SGD. Without consider one-time gain from special dividend received last year, qoq profit down 6.2 mil SGD or 8.6%. Meanwhile SBS's quarter profit up 64%. The management gave neutral outlook to most of its business segments and gave positive outlook to its Singapore and Australia Public Transport Services business. Noted that the group purchased 200 taxi recently and mentioned that the demand is back. The result is not very good, but still acceptable. The company should be able to maintain its dividend payout. As Grab should slowly focus on how to make its business profitable instead of increase market share (as Uber quitted), they may reduce the promotion code and financial incentives to drivers and customers. I believe under current tax law car leasing fee is not a deductible expenses for income tax, so I anticipate that in a long run more drivers without a vehicle will go back to taxi companies. The business model and source of profit of Grab and CDG is very different.. So I believe in a long run both companies will find a way to share the market in the future. One thing I don't like about this report is the increase of staff cost. The report didn't explain the reason of it.. 

Keong Hong 1H revenue down 15%, gross profit down 8.4%, profit after tax down 2.1%, profit attributable to shareholder up 7.2% and total comprehensive income attributable to shareholder up 4.3%. Gross profit margin up from 17.4% to 18.7%. The group's revenue down was mainly due to lower recognition of revenue from construction of some current projects as they are about to complete. The group won a new contract to construct new National Skin Centre, and I believe the revenue and profit will be reflected in next report. The order book up from 344 mil in last quarter to 394 mil. The group set up a JV with some other companies to bid the land for condo development, but I am not sure about the result of the bid (news said they gave highest bid). Noted that the board increased the dividend to 0.5 cents compared to 0.25 cents last year, however two years ago the dividend was also 0.5 cents. Parc Life Executive Condominium has attained sales of approximately 95.0% to date (last report was 79%) and has obtained its TOP on 29 March 2018. Seaside Residences Condominium has achieved sales of 80.0% to date (last report was 65%), however I am not sure have they recognised the profit of these condos or not. The management also mentioned that Mercure Maldives Kooddoo Hotel has performed above our expectations since its opening in September 2017 and the management is cautiously optimistic on its performance in the current financial year. However we have to understand that even though the number of tourist visited Maldives is increasing every year, the number of available hotel room is increasing at a even faster rate, so the competition is quite strong. The hotel is managed by Mercure and their new hotel will be managed by Pullman which are under AccorHotel Groups (GIC invested in Accor recently). Accor Group is well known in European countries, which might attract those people to stay in these hotels. Although the group is facing many challenges, I would like to buy more shares if the price drops as the group is quite healthy to me.

Tai Sin 3Q revenue up 15.6%, COGS up 22.5%,  profit attributable to shareholders down 39.5% and total comprehensive income attributable to shareholders down 33.3%. Noted that the group's proceed of "short term borrowings" was 48.6 mil and repayment of "short term borrowings" was 35.5 mil, net cash flow from operating activities was 4.9 mil and net cash used in investing activities was 2.4 mil. So part of the proceed of "short term borrowings" was used to pay dividend, as the group paid 10.2 mil dividend within 9 months. The Group anticipates the business environment to remain challenging. The Group is facing pressure from the volatility of copper prices and foreign exchange coupled with the intense competition in the infrastructure sector which could impact the Group’s performance. The main focus of the Group is still on public sector infrastructure projects in the Southeast Asia region, despite uncertainties in realisation of the projects in the near term. With construction demand anticipated to improve over the medium term, there are still opportunities for the Group. The group also going to sell their stake in Nelyect international pte ltd. In the announcement the group mentioned that the share of the estimated profit after tax of NIPL resulting from the Disposal is about $3 million. From their FY2017 annual report, I found that the net profit of NIPL in FY2017 was 1.25 mil and loss 169,000 in FY2016. I think it might be a good deal if the group can generate cash and 3 mil profit by disposal, and the profit of the association is not so material in the group. However, I think the group is struggling in current business environment, and the risk of dividend reduction might be high, given that they only have 26.9 mil of cash at the moment, and they still need to use it as working capital... I might sell away my shares.. 

In conclusion, I think CDG result so so, Keong Hong one is quite ok, Tai Sin one is the worse. Just my 2 cents opinion.. so DYODD lah! 

Happy Investing.

Share Price Movement & Emotion

Don't let the share price movement control your emotion.

I bought and hold CDG for almost a year.. Not too long, and the position is not too big, however I felt it controlled my emotion and also controlled my "independent decision making process".

Same thing happened to when I bought LHT. When the price slowly gets lower and lower, with super low volume, sometimes I will ask myself why I chose to buy this counter.

This kind of emotion might make me sell the shares once they breakeven, as I might be scared to get trap by it again.

Must focus more on earnings and the overall industry and economies..

Portfolio Update April 2018

Happy Labour Day! I went back to Italy again and going to stay here for another three months.. May is an exciting month to me, as the reporting season is coming soon, I can review all the companies that I am holding again.

Unfortunately, due to the time zone difference, I might miss out many opportunities again. I looked into Valuetronics last Sunday, and have decided to invest into it again. But when I woke up on Monday morning Valuetronics has already jump more than 10+%.. I will just put it into my WL again and see when do I have another opportunity to invest again. It is one of my favourite counter, with stable dividend and stable growth.

There got some good news in April. STI closed at a 10 years record high! Our local banks are so powerful and the earnings are so good. However, I must be very alert these days, as the price of some bluechips are not cheap at all, and any correction might have a negative impact to other counters. CDG also showed early sign of trend reversal! I was planning to average down again at around 1.80 but the lowest price it went was around 1.9.. Good that I set my average down plan and executed it accordingly, as I successfully average down at 2.03. Better than nothing isn't it? I am not planning to buy more, as the future of the company is still unclear.

I sold my BOC Aviation at 46.95, and it went up to 48.80 two days later.. After that it went down again, and I bought some at 46.10 and some at 45.25. I also planned to average down on Minsheng Bank at 7.22 HKD, but the order was not executed. I think it doesn't deserve such low valuation, and I will look for another opportunity to average down.

I borrowed some funds from my parents, and inject 29,500 SGD into the market. Unfortunately I chose to buy AUD at around 1.02, and now SGD is worth more than AUD. Current paper loss is around 400-500 SGD, but I will just put it aside first.. I remember few years later it also went down to this level, but the trend reversed and it went back to 1.10+. Hope this time the history will repeat itself.

STI closed at 3613.93 on the last trading day of April, it gained 185.96 pts or 5.42% in a month. My portfolio gained 313.6 SGD or 0.29% in April. Straits Trading went XD in April and I will receive 1,000 SGD dividend in May, so technically the return of the portfolio in April should be 1.20%. My portfolio got low beta as most of the stocks I am holding now is quite defensive.

No.	Stock	No. of Shares	Ave.Cost	Price	MarketValue	MarketValue (SGD)	%Portfolio
SGX
1	CDG	6,200	2.34	2.25	13,950.00	13,950.00	10.05%
2	KeongHong	23,800	0.62	0.565	13,447.00	13,447.00	9.68%
3	TAI SIN	20,000	0.44	0.39	7,800.00	7,800.00	5.62%
4	STRAITS TRADING	20,000	2.52	2.21	44,200.00	44,200.00	31.83%
5	BOC Aviation	2,300	45.84	46	105,800.00	17,946.38	12.92%
6	MINSHENG	5,000	8.62	7.4	37,000.00	6,276.14	4.52%
7	RIVERA	70,000	0.6	0.61	42,700.00	7,243.01	5.22%
Cash
	SGD				341.18	341.18	0.25%
	HKD				47,535.11	8063.16684	5.81%
	AUD				19,575.22	19587.3642	14.11%
	Total					138,854.24	100%

Hopefully my AUD can breakeven soon, and earn small profit on it.. Anyway hope we won't see "sell in May and go away" this year!

Thanks for reading!