Keong Hong Annual Result 2018

Finally Keong Hong has released their annual results, when other counters in my portfolio released much earlier in November. I have high expectation in this counter, and I guess its 2018 Annual Result didn't disappoint me.

The 12 months revenue down 29.4% or 69 million. Sounds bad, but the management explained it was mainly due to lower recognition of revenue from construction projects as some of the projects had largely been completed in the previous financial year (well but I guess I have always see this line in its financial report). Fortunately, the company managed to win some projects in FY2018, including National Skin Centre and Mattar Road condo contract, and the order book stood at approximately 376.1 million and last year it was around 344 million at the end of financial year. The company shows that it has the ability to win contracts continuously, however I was concerning about the revenue in Q4 as it down 45.6% or 45 million. In its Annual Report 2017 the company disclosed that they recognise the revenue based on the output method, and the company won its major contracts in earlier this year so I believe that "some of the projects had largely been completed in the previous financial year" didn't fully explain the performance of its revenue. 1.1% of the total revenue was from the investment property in Japan, and I went back to 2017 Annual Report and found the investment property segment asset is around 23 million SGD. So the rental income is around 1.65 million so the rental yield is around 7%, while the interest rate of the term loan secured by the investment property is around 2.6%. Guess it is a good business. COGS down more than revenue so in fact the changes in its gross profit figure is still acceptable. 

Impressively, the company recorded positive results from its joint ventures and associates after disappointing result of associates in Q4, compared to negative results in previous year. Hopefully these are not due to one one-time gain. The company's net profit down 66% or 42 million, but if we remove the one-time gain from previous year, the result is actually better than previous year. To be honest I still don't understand the logic  behind the one-time revaluation gain, as the company is not going to sell its joint venture and it is not a listed company, so the main consequence of such revaluation is that the result looks good on its face. I personally excluded that revaluation gain when looking into this company, as it won't turn to cash in any foreseeable future (at least the management never disclose that they are planning to sell it). 

The company disclosed that the Mercure Maldives Kooddoo Resort has been conferred the Global Winner of the 2018 Luxury New Resort awarded by The World Luxury Hotel Awards. It sounds amazing, but when I check the website of The World Luxury Hotel Awards, there is 4 Global Winner in Maldives. Guess it is not as impressive as it sounds, but at least it is a quality confirmation and recognition. The hotel's rating on Booking.com is 9.2/10, quite good, but it is based on 32 reviewers only. Hope more people can give their comments and review online so we can understand more about this business.

The company is going to give 2 cents final dividend for this financial year! In total the dividend for FY2018 is 2.5 cents and it is a 5% dividend yield at current share price. Since the company is still trading at a discount to its NAV with low PE, higher dividend will contribute to my cashflow and I will have chance to add more in the future. 

Looking forward to attend its AGM in January.

Cheers.  

Transaction Update

My laptop finally broke down after 3 years.. I believe that I didn't take good care of it and I just got a new laptop.. Wallet is crying.. Hopefully can earn back soon. I lost all my files in my old laptop... just spent an hour to redo my portfolio performance record.

I sold my entire holdings of Tai Sin Electric few days ago at a price of 0.355, day after they released their disappointing results. I reaslied that it is kind of hopeless (at least for short to mid time frame period), their failed to pass the cost of its inputs to its suppliers, as the management said the competition is fierce in the industry. I first bought Tai Sin at 0.395 in February 2017 and sold it at 0.460 in March 2017. Good profit in a short time period so I gained this unrealistic confident and "fall in love" with this counter. I guess it is the positive results that happened in the past gave me positive impression of this counter, so I gave it nearly 1.5 years chances after I bought it back at 0.440 in May 2017, even though the company was showing the inability to pass the cost to its customers. Based on the face value I made a 20% loss for this trade, but it was offset by the quick profit I made last year, and the dividend I collected. So at the end of day I made small profit after two years. It is a 4+% return in two years so around 2+% in each year... Guess better than the risk free interest (but worse than cpf interest return). I noted that STI was at around 3100 in Feb 2017 so technically my return of this investment is also better than our dear STI's performance. This is another positive result that supports my theory of buying high dividend yield stocks. I also used the dividend to invest in other counters which generated more dividends, but hard to do the calculation so forget about it. d:

There was another stock I bought last time caught my interest again - Asian Pay TV Trust. I even made an estimation on investingnote(which it hit my target price!). I bought this counter in Jan 2017 at 0.415 and sold in the end of Feb 2017 at 0.445, and yes it was another quick profit I made during that period (I also earned a good return from Design Studio, which used to be my favourite stock but now it is in deep trouble I guess). I made a 9+% ROI in two months, but I forgot whether I received any dividend from this counter or not. This counter used to give crazy dividend, and that was the main reason of investing into it. However, I realised that it is paying unsustainable dividend, so I quickly dispose my entire holdings. I am lucky that nothing happened which I was holding this counter, and I shall make sure that I take a deeper look into any company before I make my investment decision, and it is critical. The counter is now trading at 0.167, and if I didn't sell my shares and hold it until today I will make 59% loss (excluding the dividend received, I am lazy to trace its dividend record for two years so please forgive me). Anyway I really appreciate the tracking features of investingnote, it made my life so much easier!

Investment is not easy and it is a sophisticated art. Time is your best friend and worst enemy. 

Hopefully 2019 will be a better year. 

Cheers.

When HSI jump more than 1000 pts

Today, HSI jump more than 1000 pts or 4+% in a single day, after Trump and Xi's phone call last night. 

STI up1.6% at the time of writing, which is weaker than HSI. It is expected, as HSI was underperformed than STI for the past 6 months.

I believe many people missed the boat today. I can feel my fear of missing the boat as well. However, I keep telling myself that do not panic and do not make any decision without careful evaluation.

On the bright side, I did some dollar averaging in the past few months. I bought Rivera and ND Paper. Today, ND Paper up 12.75% (but I made small money due to the relatively small position size compare to my whole portfolio). 

I still got 30% of my portfolio in cash, which I planned to carry out dollar averaging plan systematically. I bought some China Construction Bank (HK) today. When I was submitting the trade, I can hear a voice telling me that I should buy more if not I will miss the boat, and this is a great opportunity to earn big money. However, I told myself that I should proceed with my strategy systematically, and do not spend too much on any single trade. 

Even though most of the HSI stocks went crazy today, if look carefully most of them are still way below the price in January (except my dear BOC Aviation, which up more than 40% from the beginning of the year, and I got no chance to buy it back lol). Currently, cny is still at a relatively cheap price against usd or sgd, so if cny continue to appreciate as this morning, I believe many companies will benefit from if they import raw materials from other countries. Therefore, I will add more Lee & Man Paper next week. 

In conclusion, do not ever be panic when the market goes crazy. Follow your plan, invest or trade in your own pattern. Be systematic and be yourself. Have a clear mind before executing any plan, if not better turn off your computer and go for kopi break. I would like to see the outcome of next US election as well as the planned meeting of Trump and Xi. 

Hope we all huat together! Thanks for reading.

Portfolio Update October 2018

Today I observed a strong window dressing. However, HSI posts the worst performing month since 2016 after window dressing. Some of my counters got adversely impacted by the market. However, the window dressing covered up part of my loss.

As we can see from the table above, the index value of SGX down 7.31% in October, and HSI down 9.88% in the same period. My portfolio index value down 0.87% in October, which is a satisfied result to me. I closed my AUD position and change it back to SGD, as MAS might appreciate SGD and I don't see any force behind AUD to appreciate it at the moment. Kindly correct me if I am wrong, as I didn't do well in my Econ Lecture in college. I saw some political uncertainty in Australia, and I am also concern about the growth of China GDP, which got a heavy impact on AUD.

I started to average the costs down of my holdings. I bought Rivera and ND Paper in October. I will slowly increase my stake in these companies which gives sustainable dividend and I believe I will be able to further average down my costs with the dividend. I am also waiting for Keong Hong report to see if I shall further increase my holding in this company.

As mentioned in my previous portfolio update report, I expected that Air China SSE will drop. Even though today this counter up more than 5%, it is still lower than September closing price by 8%. Without today's window dressing then it should be lower than September closing price by 12.5%! I shall be able to buy it below 7 or even 6.8.

I am also going to increase my investment in China Banks. I will be investing in one of the Major Government Linked Bank in China. I will look into their ROA and bad debt ratio before reaching the final decision.

As mentioned in the last market review, we saw STI went below 3000 in October. I am expecting it to go down again.

Beside this bloody market, I received some good news in this month. I passed my F5, F6 and F8 exams and ACCA notified me that I am the best performing student for my F5 exam in Singapore! Now I got something new to add into my resume ~ I am also going to start an internship with one of the Big 4 and really looking forward to it.

Happy investing. Thanks for reading.

Cheers.
 

SBS Transit - Ticket Price Adjustment?!

Yesterday PTC said that it will implement the maximum allowable adjustment quantum of 4.3% for bus and train fares starting from December 29. Even though the adjustment for students and senior citizens will be capped at 1 cent, for most of the people who are using adult transport card the adjustment will 6 cents per journey.

I looked into their 1H report, I realised that while the 1H revenue increased by 17.8%, their total operating cost increased by 16% only. If we look into the details, we can see that repairs and maintenance costs increased by 30.3% and fuel and electricity costs increased by 35.4%. However, the biggest component of the total operating cost is staff costs, which account for more than 50% of the total operating cost, increased by 11.4% only.

I also noted that the finance costs decreased by 16.9%, and their total liability decreased by 6.6%. There are not many changes in terms of borrowings. The cash position was also healthy and the company got positive operating cash inflow for 1H 2018.

I don't really understand the reason behind the bus and train fares adjustment. It doesn't seem like the company is doing badly and need to increase their revenue to cover their interest expenses or daily operating expenses. The company got healthy cash flow with good cash position, and their biggest portion of operating expense increased at a slower pace compared with the revenue. So in conclusion, the fare adjustment will increase the company's profit before taxation, perhaps by another 60%. I took the revenue from 1H 2018 and multiplied by 1.043 to get the revenue with fares adjustment. Assumed that the revenue and the total operating expenses didn't increase (or perhaps they will increase by a similar speed), so the profit before taxation will be increased by around 60%.

If we view this adjustment solely on an investor's perspective, I guess this fare adjustment is a good news for SBS Transit's investors. The cash flow will be much healthier and I believe they will be able to distribute a higher dividend.

Will... Perhaps I shall buy some SBS Transit to hedge my transportation expenses...

DYODD.. I can feel the pain of my wallet ):

Market Review

A few months ago I wrote in my investment journal that I am interested in Air China listed on SSE. The price was 8+ cny at the end of September, but I wrote in my latest investment journal that I believe the price will drop again. At the time of writing Air China is trading at 6.98 cny. However, the PB is still above 1, so I guess I have to wait for another few months.

STI might drop below 3000 in the next few months... It sounds bad. But, today SSE closed below 2500. Can see the blood everywhere... I am thinking when should I average down, however I got very limited bullets, and it is a difficult decision to decide when to enter the market.

I transfer my aud back to sgd this month and realised a loss of few hundreds. The loss is offset by the appreciation of hkd.

I just read Tai Sin annual report. I guess there is nothing special. Increasing competition in the industry and cost of inventory, the profit is decresing when the turnover is increasing. The board even cut the dividend from 1.6 cents to 1.5 cents, but it is not a big deal. I am more concern about their cash flow. Given that the dividend level should be able to maintain at the current level, I will not sell my shares at the moment, but I would not increase my shareholding as well.

Hope everyone can survive in this bear market.

Cheers.

Portfolio Update September 2018

Nothing special happened in September.. Except that I went to the Centurion Shareholder day trip. 

I sold YZJ in the month and recognized the gain in less than a month after I bought them. The share is trading at an even higher value at the time of writing but I got no regret. Recognized a 28% gain in less than 1 month is more than enough. 

I am thinking of transferring the Australian Dollar in my account back to Singapore Dollar, as I found the strength of the Australian Dollar is getting weaker. US-China tension might even have more negative impacts on it. Currently, I am sitting on a 4% loss for the Australian Dollar. 

In September I also received the dividend from Goldpac Group. I realized that the dividend credited into my Poems HongKong Dollar account is not subjected to the foreign dividend tax. 

 

As the table shown above, my portfolio was underperformed then STI, but outperform HSI. Given that more than 20% of my portfolio is Hong Kong shares, I think the performance is still acceptable. 

I wanted to buy Air China (SSE), but it rose around 20% in a month. This might due to the China National Holiday and investors expected that Air China will benefit from it. However, the oil price is still rising and CNY is still depreciating. I expect that the price of Air China will drop back to the previous level, as the extra income from National Holiday should already be incorporated into the share price as it is a yearly event. The price should not have so much reaction to this recurring event. Air China (HSI) only rose around 11% during the same period, and I expect HKEX investors are more rational so the price is also more rational than SSE price. 

Currently, US-China tension is at an interesting stage. Not sure when are they going to have the talk again, so we must still invest with cautions. 

I completed ACCA F5, F6 and F8 in September, and started to look for internships. Hopefully, I will be able to start my professional career as soon as possible, so I will also be able to collect more bullets. 

Another reporting season is coming soon. Let's see if there are any interesting one for us to put the funds on. 

Thank you.