Friday, December 8, 2017

ComfortDelgro & Uber join forces review

I am sure many people are excited to see the share price movement on monday. However, that is not my major concern. Share price up or down next week is more like a poll result of the opinion of "majorities" (especially those major funds), and we still have to wait and observe the final financial impact of this agreement. In fact I am ready to see the share price goes all the way down to 1.8 or below, and I will execute my progressive average down plan as I planned before. 

BlaclRock actually increased its holding few days ago, even though it didn't add alot, I still view that as a positive news. 

ComfortDelgro didn't disclose enough information for us to evaluate this deal. The only thing we know is that they paid less than NAV, which sounds like a good deal. But details of the agreement is the most important part when we do evaluation. Sadly, we are not insiders ):

In the current industry, if you are the CEO of ComfortDelgro, what will you do to protect your business from Uber and Grab? I found that even though the announcement might not meet someone's expectation, but at least they are trying. I found that it might be the best and only choice to enter into a strategic agreement with Uber at current situation, since they failed to transform the business few years ago. From Grab's previous promotion to attract Comfort's drivers, I think that Grab's managers are looking to hunt Comfort down, and if ComfortDelgro's management want to have a strategic agreement with Grab, they might have to pay higher prices, which might not benefit the company and the shareholders at all. 

Someone also mentioned about the electric car sharing scheme will have a negative impact on taxi's industry, but I think the impact might not be so obvious. Car sharing has a longer history in Italy, but I found that most people still prefer to take taxi (but Uber is illegal in Italy and the road is super complicated here so in Singapore car sharing business might be a different story). Few months ago I also read an article about BMW car sharing business failed in China. We shall evaluate the negative impact from car sharing to taxi industry few months later again.

Overall.. I believed that next week share price movement is not that important, if the agreement will benefit shareholders in long run, and earn more profit and distribute to shareholders, share price will reflect the performance one day. 

Thanks for reading! 


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