Saturday, December 16, 2017

Recent Action and Short Term Plan

Recently I have made two transactions.

I converted SGD 20,000 into AUD at 1.273. I was planning to make some investment at ASX but eventually I gave up. When the time I finished currency conversion, both Telstra and New Zealand Airline up about 5%, but that is not the major reason I gave up. I realised that it is a totally different market with different characteristics, and it might take long time to get use to it. I gave up on Telstra is because that I realised that their business is facing strong headwinds, and they are trading at more than 2 times of its book value and 11x PE, and the share price is decreasing since years ago. It sounds like another ComfortDelgro (ASX Version), and after I read their Annual Report, I found no interest in their business. Maybe that's also the reason why I didn't buy Singtel (even though I had a feeling I can earn some kopi money last week). I gave up on Air New Zealand even though the group earned good profit last year. According to IATA, 2017 might be the top 3 years that airlines can produce great profit. I calculated the fuel cost, and I will write another short review about it and SIA later. I found that the profit and dividend might not be sustainable, unless oil price will stay below 60 dollars permanently. I will keep this part of my funds in AUD first, and later convert back into SGD.

I also converted another SGD 20,000 into HKD. I was intended to use it to buy back Keong Hong, but I felt the weakness of the share price. I am planning to use these funds to buy BOC Aviation, and the reason of it is written in the last post.

As mentioned earlier I intend to buy back Keong Hong. I might be too greedy, as I am waiting for a lower price to enter again. Currently Keong Hong is trading at a low PE and at a discount of its book value. Hope I didn't make a wrong choice this time.

I still left around SGD 2,000 in my account. I am planning to buy daily certificate to short STI, as I found that currently banks valuation is abit high. I am also looking into daily certificate to short HSI too, as Tencent's valuation is very high and it accounts for more than 10% of HSI currently.

In conclusion, my short term plan is to wait for better entry to buy back Keong Hong, and use SGD 1,000 to buy 5X Short MSCI Singapore DLC and 5X Short HSI. I will buy BOC Aviation progressively too.

Thanks for reading.

4 comments:

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  2. Just curious. How do you buy cert. to short STI ?

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    1. Hi,

      https://www.poems.com.sg/products/dlcs/

      I saw Poems got DLC products which allow us to long or short MSCI Singapore Index. I found it might be a better option than short STI ETF as that will incurred interest expense. However, it is also risky as DLC is a leveraged product.

      Allen

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