Blood is everywhere in the market now! Seems like sell in May and go away is working again. I have attached the performance of STI and HSI for 2018 below.
We can see that after April the indexes are heading south, and due to various issues and tensions there is no sign of trend reverse yet. In August STI down 3.21% to 3213.48 and HSI down 2.43% to 27888.55. Well at the time of writing STI is 3134.39 and HSI is 26973.47. My portfolio is in deeper red and down 0.854% in August.
Let me first start with my transactions in August. My plan was to collect different counters slowly. I have bought ND Paper and Lee & Man Paper at the beginning of August. Unfortunately after I bought them it went down more than 10%..... The major reason for them to drop was China imposed new tariff on recycle paper imported from US, which is the major raw material of paper industry in China. Very interesting story is US recycle paper is the highest quality raw material for paper industry, so import from US is not even an option, it is almost a standard requirement for high quality paper factories. Depreciation of RMB was another concern. However I believe that since most of the major factories are importing raw materials from US and will be subjected to higher tariff, they will be able to transfer the cost to their customers. However must be prepared that the next few financial report won't look good, as cost transfer might be a mid-term progress. I don't believe that RMB will depreciate like Argentina Peso, due to China strict foreign currency exchange and transmit policy. I heard that it is more difficult to exchange RMB to foreign currency and all transactions will be subjected to more stronger regulation. Since my plan to build my portfolio is accumulate slowly, I believe that I shall be able to accumulate more of their shares at cheaper price. Although their valuation is higher than Tat Seng Pkg listed in SGX (I bought it last time and earned around 10%), but we all know that STI normally will have a lower valuation compare with other major exchange (due to lower trading volume?).
I have sold my BOCA few months ago, but it produced an outstanding financial report in August. The share price went up alot even HSI is swimming in blood. Guess I have to put my plan on hold.. It is a really good company with stable financial performance.
I also bought YZJ at 0.88. That day I saw it gap down from 0.9+ to 0.88 I felt that this is my last chance to buy it. Even though my plan was to wait for it to release its 1H report, but I decided to buy some. However due to my risk management I didn't buy big. The 1H report was outstanding and it went up to 1.14 in around two weeks. I have sold it at 1.13. The profit I made can somehow offset my loss from ND Paper and Lee & Man Paper. The reason of selling was it went up too fast. In fact if my position is large enough I will not realise all my profit in a day.
SGD is now worth more than AUD. Have to take note of it and it might potentially affect some of the companies in my portfolio. Straits Trading and CDG are two of them. Straits Trading report so so only with huge other comprehensive loss, due to unrealised trading loss. But during current market condition I didn't expect much. CDG looks more stable at the moment, but I believe the growth is limited. However the dividend should be able to maintain therefore I still hold part of it in my portfolio.
I have exchanged some RMB from SGD as I believe that it will not further depreciate. Made very small profit on it at the moment.
Currently around 25% of my portfolio is still in cash. In current market condition I believe we must take a safer approach. Must identify for companies that are able to survive in the tariff war, and we are able to invest in companies with good reputation at a cheaper cost. I see it as an opportunity, however it really feel bad to see my portfolio in deeper red ): Hope I will be able to generate some cashflow and invest more.
Meanwhile I just finished my ACCA F5, F6 and F8 exams! I think I screwed up with my taxation anyway ):. Hope can pass all exams. Currently also applying for internship to get some work experience.
All the best everyone! Hope we all can survive and huat in the beat market!
Thanks for reading.
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